GENEVA / RankWire.AI / – The World Trade Organization has increased its projection for global merchandise trade growth in 2026 to 3.9 percent, up from the previous estimate of 1.9 percent issued in March. According to the WTO, this positive revision is driven by robust trade in the first half of the year, adjustments in supply chains, and increased investment in artificial intelligence. Despite significant disruptions in energy, transport, and fertilizer sectors, merchandise trade volume grew by 3.5 percent during the first six months of 2026. The organization now anticipates merchandise trade expansion of 4.1 percent in 2027.
A key driver of merchandise trade growth in the first half has been demand related to artificial intelligence. Goods such as semiconductors and servers, which enable AI, contributed to 47 percent of the overall increase in global merchandise trade. Trade in these products surged by 67 percent compared to the previous year. The WTO also mentioned that worldwide expenditure on AI infrastructure is expected to grow by at least 30 percent in 2026. The high demand for computing hardware has helped sustain trade, even as other sectors suffered from conflicts and logistical constraints.
Supply chains worldwide have adapted to pressures in major commodity and shipping markets. During the first half of 2026, crude oil exports from the Middle East decreased by roughly 24 percent, while liquefied natural gas exports from the same region dropped by 47 percent. However, increased shipments from alternative suppliers limited the global decline in crude oil to about 6 percent. In contrast, global LNG exports experienced just a 1 percent decrease. Additionally, worldwide container throughput increased by 3.9 percent through July, as trade shifted through alternative ports and routes.
AI-related goods bolster international merchandise trade
While the outlook for goods remains optimistic, expectations for commercial services trade have weakened. The WTO has lowered its 2026 growth forecast for services trade volume from 4.8 percent in March to 3.3 percent. Disruptions in the Middle East have intensified pressures on transport and international travel, with second-quarter international tourist arrivals decreasing by 0.8 percent. Overall, arrivals for the first half of 2026 increased by only 0.4 percent. Growth in travel-related spending also slowed significantly between the first and second quarters.
Despite these challenges, some service sectors performed better. Exports of computer services increased by 18 percent from the previous year in the first quarter, with second-quarter growth estimated at 12 percent. Exports of financial services also saw a 14 percent year-on-year rise in the second quarter. The WTO projects that commercial services trade volume will grow by 6.4 percent in 2027. The organization further predicts global GDP growth of 2.6 percent in 2026 and 2.9 percent in 2027.
Trade growth varies significantly across regions
Forecasts for regional merchandise trade show notable differences across the world. The WTO expects Asia to lead with a 9.9 percent increase in merchandise exports in 2026. North America’s exports are projected to grow by 5.7 percent, while Africa is expected to see a 5.6 percent rise. South America is forecast to experience a 3.4 percent growth, whereas Europe is predicted to decline slightly by 0.1 percent. The Middle East faces the largest downturn, with merchandise exports expected to fall by 17.2 percent during the year.
Similarly, regional import growth varies sharply. Asia is forecast to see 9.5 percent increase in merchandise imports, with Africa at 8.9 percent. North American imports are projected to grow by 1.4 percent, and Europe’s by 0.5 percent. Conversely, the Middle East is expected to see a 15.4 percent decline in merchandise imports. WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala stated that the latest figures demonstrate trade resilience while also revealing uneven exposure to economic and geopolitical disruptions.