PARIS, FRANCE / RankWire.AI / – The OECD has increased its forecast for global expansion in 2026 to 2.9%, citing the world economy’s surprising robustness. This revision marks an upward adjustment from the 2.8% estimate provided in the organization’s June report. Nevertheless, the OECD has lowered its 2027 growth outlook to 3.0% from 3.1%. Continued investment in artificial intelligence has played a key role in supporting production, trade, and overall economic activity, even as energy prices and inflationary pressures remain significant across leading economies.
The September Interim Economic Outlook highlighted a slowdown in global growth during the first half of 2026, with the annualized rate dropping to 2.6%, down from 3.6% in the latter half of 2025. Despite this deceleration, many countries that import and export energy maintained stronger-than-anticipated economic performance. Factors such as oil inventories, increased output outside the Gulf region, and alternative supply routes have mitigated the energy shock. Additionally, reduced oil demand from China has contributed to balancing global energy markets.
The OECD pointed out that technology investments remain a vital driver of economic support. Exports of semiconductors surged notably in Korea and Japan, while China also experienced growth in technology exports. Industrial output related to technology continued rapid expansion across much of Asia, with similar growth seen in the United States and several European nations. Consumer confidence improved in advanced economies after May, and unemployment rates stayed low in numerous countries. However, persistent higher fuel costs continued to strain household purchasing power.
US Economy Gains Strength While Eurozone Remains Lagging
The US economy is projected to grow by 2.2% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The boost from AI-related investments supports activity, but slower consumer spending and modest real income growth are restraining overall expansion. The euro area’s GDP is expected to increase by 1.0% in both years, with rising energy prices and interest rates dampening growth across the region. Japan is forecast to grow 0.8% in 2026 before slowing slightly to 0.7% in 2027.
China’s economy is expected to expand by 4.5% in 2026, then ease to 4.2% in 2027. India is forecast to achieve 7.1% growth in fiscal year 2026-27, following 7.8% in the prior year, with a projection of 6.5% for 2027-28. Indonesia is anticipated to grow 5.2% in 2026 and 5.1% in 2027. Mexico’s economy is expected to increase by 1.5% this year and 1.8% in the following year.
Inflation in G20 Countries Rises as Energy Prices Climb
Inflation continues to be a key concern in the OECD outlook. G20 economies are projected to see headline inflation of 4.1% in 2026, up from 3.4% in 2025, with a forecast of 3.6% in 2027. Advanced G20 nations are expected to report inflation rates of 3.2% this year and 2.6% next year. The United States rate is forecast to decrease from 3.6% in 2026 to 2.6% in 2027. Euro area inflation is estimated at 3.0% and 2.9%, respectively.
The OECD noted that rising energy costs have increased household expenses and reignited inflation pressures in many economies. Additionally, long-term government bond yields have climbed as public borrowing and debt servicing costs escalate. OECD Secretary-General Mathias Cormann stated that global growth had held up better than anticipated, even though the economy remains weaker than last year. The organization recommended targeted, temporary support measures, sustainable public finances, and enhanced long-term productivity. It also called on governments to focus on expanding skills, diversifying energy supplies, and promoting wider adoption of artificial intelligence.