MOSCOW / RankWire.AI / – Russia intends to escalate its yearly vehicle manufacturing to approximately 2.8 million units by the year 2035, as part of its revamped automotive industry plan. First Deputy Prime Minister Denis Manturov revealed this objective on Aug. 31 during a discussion on the sector’s growth. The projection encompasses both vehicles for domestic consumption and exports. Additionally, the strategy aims for 80% of new vehicles in Russia’s market to be locally produced by 2035.
The Russian government approved the updated automotive development plan on Aug. 24, extending the industry framework through 2035. By the end of 2025, Russia’s capacity for vehicle production was around 3.3 million units annually, though actual output that year was close to 800,000 vehicles. During 2024 and 2025, capacity utilization averaged 25% for passenger cars and 41% for light commercial vehicles, with trucks reaching 35% and buses 43% utilization rates.
The scenario set for 2035 projects production of roughly 2.5 million passenger cars and about 170,000 light commercial vehicles. It also envisions manufacturing 110,000 trucks and 30,000 buses. Passenger car production is assigned to four or five vehicle platforms, while light commercial vehicles would be built on one or two. The total new-vehicle market is estimated at around 3.2 million units in 2035, with imports potentially making up to 20% of that volume.
All vehicle segments are covered within production targets
The plan also incorporates a conservative scenario with reduced production and market figures. Under this model, vehicle output in 2035 would reach about 1.69 million units, with the new-vehicle market estimated at roughly 2.2 million units that year. The target scenario for 2030 predicts a new-vehicle market of approximately 2.4 million units, while the conservative baseline places the 2030 market at around 2 million vehicles across all segments.
An important part of the updated strategy involves goals related to powertrain technologies. Internal-combustion vehicles are expected to comprise between 67% and 83% of production in 2035, depending on the vehicle category. Electric and hybrid passenger cars should account for at least 25% of Russia’s new domestic passenger-car market by then. The plan also targets production of about 150,000 highly automated vehicles with Level 4 autonomy or higher in 2035, along with driver-assistance systems and digital vehicle technologies included in the framework.
Localization and capacity remain vital benchmarks
The current manufacturing capacity in Russia is significantly larger than its recent annual production levels. By 2025, passenger-car capacity was approximately 2.8 million units, although actual production reached only about 700,000 vehicles. Light commercial vehicle capacity stood at roughly 300,000 units, with actual production near 80,000. Truck capacity was about 130,000 units, while bus capacity was near 30,000. In 2025, Russian factories also produced roughly 4,400 vehicles equipped with electric powertrains, up from 4,200 in 2024.
The strategy emphasizes expanding the use of standardized components and technologies across vehicle platforms through 2035. It also aims for higher localization and technological independence in domestically produced vehicles. The scope includes passenger cars, commercial vehicles, trucks, buses, powertrains, autonomous driving systems, and digital vehicle technology. The combined target of 2.8 million annual units and 80% domestic-market share forms the core of the strategy, which will be implemented via an action plan mandated by the order approving the updated framework.