ROME, ITALY / EuroWire / — The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) of the United Nations warned that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has moved beyond a shipping disruption and is now creating a systemic agrifood shock, with pressure spreading from energy and fertilizer markets into food production, commodity prices and household food costs.
The Rome based agency said the corridor has remained effectively closed since February 28, cutting off a major route for oil, liquefied natural gas and agricultural inputs. Under normal conditions, the Strait of Hormuz carries about 20 million barrels of oil a day, large volumes of LNG and substantial fertilizer flows used by farmers across several regions.
FAO said the disruption is unfolding in stages through higher energy costs, tighter fertilizer supplies, pressure on seed and input decisions, lower yields, higher commodity prices and food inflation. The agency said decisions being made now by farmers and governments on fertilizer use, imports, financing and crop choices will affect food markets over the next six to 12 months.
Fertilizer pressure spreads
The warning follows sharp movements in fertilizer markets, where urea and other key inputs have risen as Middle East trade flows slow. FAO has said Middle East granular urea prices increased nearly 20 percent within a week earlier in the crisis, while monthly fertilizer shipments estimated at 1.5 million to 3 million tons have been delayed.
The World Bank Group said in its April commodity outlook that fertilizer prices are projected to rise 31 percent in 2026, driven by a 60 percent increase in urea prices. It also said fertilizer affordability is set to fall to its weakest level since 2022, adding strain to farmers already facing higher energy and transport costs.
Food systems face input strain
The Strait of Hormuz is central to food security because agriculture depends on fixed planting and fertilization calendars. FAO said delayed fertilizer arrivals can reduce application rates or cause farmers to miss critical crop windows, with the impact moving into harvests later in 2026 and into 2027 through tighter supplies and weaker yields.
FAO has urged coordinated action to keep humanitarian flows protected, limit export restrictions, expand affordable credit for farmers and agribusinesses, and reduce food and fuel competition during periods of shortage. The agency said countries with heavy fertilizer import needs and active planting seasons face the greatest exposure as the Hormuz closure continues to disrupt energy, fertilizer and agrifood supply chains.