ROME / RankWire.AI / – The Food and Agriculture Organization forecasts a global cereal output of 2.98 billion tonnes in 2026, representing a 2% decrease compared to last year’s record harvest. Despite this reduction, the total remains the second-largest on record, according to the Food and Agriculture Organization. The current estimate is 3.4 million tonnes lower than the forecast from July, with an annual decrease of 61.1 million tonnes—marking the most significant year-on-year decline since 2018.
After experiencing setbacks in crop prospects, global maize production is now projected at 1.309 billion tonnes. Drought and intense summer heat have impacted yields across key European Union regions, notably France and Poland. Official estimates led to downward revisions for India and Paraguay as well. Conversely, Argentina and Brazil benefitted from better-than-expected yields, with both countries anticipated to produce well above average maize volumes in 2026.
The forecast for world wheat output has increased to 810.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4.2 million tonnes from earlier predictions. Expectations for higher yields in Canada and Morocco contributed approximately 1.5 million tonnes each to this upward revision. Meanwhile, forecasts for Russia and Ukraine also grew, although dry conditions in the European Union and the United Kingdom have reduced their projections. Despite the upward revision, global wheat production remains 3.8% below 2025 levels and is expected to be the second-largest crop ever recorded.
Maize declines lead to overall cereal forecast downgrade
The FAO’s latest estimate for rice production in 2026/27 stands at 553.1 million tonnes on a milled basis, reflecting a 1.9% decrease from the revised record in 2025/26. The update was supported by stronger yields from main crops in Sri Lanka and improved figures for Myanmar. These gains balanced out reductions for China, the Philippines, and the United States, where rice plantings have fallen to multi-decade lows.
The FAO expects global cereal consumption to reach 2.965 billion tonnes in 2026/27, representing a marginal increase of 0.2% from the previous season. While coarse grains and rice consumption are projected to grow, wheat use is anticipated to fall from last season’s high levels. World rice utilization is forecast at 559 million tonnes, driven by population growth and increased food demand. Additionally, feed requirements remain significant, including barley consumption in China and maize consumption in the United States.
Stock levels remain comfortable despite slight decline
At the end of the 2027 seasons, world cereal stocks are forecasted at 947.2 million tonnes, a decrease of 10.7 million tonnes from earlier estimates but still 1.8 million tonnes above opening levels. The global cereal stocks-to-use ratio is predicted at 31.6%, slightly down from 31.9% in the previous season. Wheat reserves are expected to increase in Russia and Ukraine, whereas lower maize and barley inventories have diminished the overall stock outlook.
Trade in cereals for 2026/27 is projected at 509.3 million tonnes, up 1.7 million tonnes from prior estimates but still below the record levels seen in 2025/26. The rise is largely driven by increased maize exports, with Argentina potentially exporting up to 39 million tonnes. International rice trade is forecast at 60.5 million tonnes for 2026, with total rice shipments still 1.9% below the 2025 record.